Abstract:

As at the top of the precious metals, gold has been historically seen as a symbol of wealth, economic power and prosperity by both countries and households. There are many studies supply and demand based on discussions of the factors affecting gold prices in the literature. Especially in recent years the gold prices have seen the historical peak level might well be the main reason of choosing subject of this study. In this study, it is aimed whether there is long run Granger causality between gold prices and other chosen variables with using weekly data between 2015 and 2019. In the model, while gold prices are determined as dependent variables, oil prices, BIST100 Index, exchange rate (USD) are determined as independent variables of VIX Index. In the study, it is examined whether the existence of a long-term relationship between variables with using the cointegration tests. In addition, in order to reveal the effect of the shocks in the variables in the long term, VAR analysis was applied. According to the results of VAR analysis, a long-term relationship has been determined between gold prices and other independent variables. In the light of the empirical findings, it can be said that there are Granger causality relationships between gold prices and BIST 100 Index, oil prices and exchange rate variables.

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