Özet:

The aim of this study is to compare the factors affecting the prices of gold in Turkey (Gram Gold/Turkish Lira Parity) with each other. Method - The variables used in the study are the gold prices of Turkey (Gram Gold/TL) Stock Exchange Istanbul BIST-100 Index, Turkey 5 years CDS premium, Turkey TÜFE annual exchange, currency rate (Dolar/TL), interest difference (Turkey 10 years bond interest-US 10 years bond interest), oil prices (Brent and crude oil prices equal weight created prices average), the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index is the VIX fear index. Time series were observed logarithmicly on a monthly frequency between May 2013 and November 2021. In the study, the Johansen co-integration test, the VAR method and the Granger causality tests were used. Results - In the study, the variables that explain the prices of gold in Turkey are balanced in the long term and the short-term balanced deviations are re-balanced in the long term. According to cause analysis, inflation, Bist-100, interest difference 5% and VIX fear index are the cause of the price of gold in Turkey at the level of meaning of 10%. In the short term, all variables except the dollar/TL are statistically meaningful. In the short term of these variables, inflation, oil prices and the VIX index are negative, and the other variables are positive. In the long term, oil, prices, interest difference is significant at the level of 5% and the Bist-100 index is significant at 10%. The ratio of the Bist-100 index and oil prices variables is positive, and the ratio of the interest rate variable is negative. According to the results of the variance division, the value of the gold prices of the variants in the description is ranked; interest difference, TÜFE, oil prices, Bist-100, CDS, Dollar/TL, VIX. According to the impact-effect analysis; in the early periods; inflation, interest difference and shocks in the VIX index, the gold price variable has given a positive response to other negative variables. Debate - Short-term interest rate increases raise gold prices in Turkey while lowering gold prices in the long-term. As long-term investors have higher interest expectations, it can be said that their savings are directed from gold to government bonds and deposits. Inflation variable; in the short term, excess value losses in the TL, as well as the impact of the interests is lower than the impact of the interests, and the negative real interests that occur in the short term lower the gold prices. On the other hand, the rising oil prices are more attractive to investors, while in the short term the price of gold has a negative relationship, while in the long term the price of oil increases the price of gold in Turkey. In addition, the real stock exchanges that decrease with the TL’s lowering also raise the price of gold in the short and long term. Because theoretically, in the long term, gold investors often expect more return from gold investments than the stock exchange investments In addition; in Turkey, gold prices are a parity in the form of GAU/TRY, the value of the falling TL increases this parity. On the other hand, the risk premium of Turkey in the short term is less influential than the interest difference, but it creates pressure on gold prices. A statistically significant impact of currency rates in the short and long term is not observed at a level of 5%, in the long term at a level of 10%. This can be interpreted as the effects of the currency occur within other variables. In short, interest and inflation are determining through interest differences in gold prices in Turkey, and in the short term the risk of Turkey creates pressure on gold prices, and the negative impact of exchange rates occurs in the long term. The variables in global markets are: oil prices and Vix index are lowering gold prices in the short term, while oil prices are raising gold prices in the long term. Based on the short and long-term variable ratio signals, investors can judge the difference between gold and the short and long-term revenue they expect from these variables.

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