Abstract:

In this study, the BEER (Behavioral Balance Currency Dry) approach aimed at determining the long-term balance currency rates and deviations in the period 1995-2012 for 15 developing countries that are experiencing currency open problems. As a result of the applied panel data analysis, the long-term balance is found that the most important determiner of the real effective currency rate is relative efficiency. The changes in the net foreign asset stock have also been observed to have significant effects. The achieved long-term balance revealed that the real effective currency currency values, depending on national and international economic developments, disadvantages from the level of balance show significant differences from period to period and by country. According to this, the 2008 global crisis has been shown to have a significant impact on real effective exchange rates. In India, Poland, Croatia and Lithuania, the deviation of the real effective currency from the long-term balance is low compared to other countries, but it is high in South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Colombia, Uruguay, Bulgaria and Tunisia. The results for Turkey have shown that the real effective currency course is generally a message of crises. The real effective exchange rate was exaggerated by the balance level due to national and global developments from 2003 to 2009, when the effects of the global crisis were felt, and in the subsequent process it had a low-value appearance due to the developments from 2011.

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