Özet:

The aim of the study is to analyze the effect of Syrian refugee migration on the direction of the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth within the framework of Wagner Law and Keynes Hypothesis. In the study, the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth and public expenditures with monthly data for the period 2006 to 2021 was tested with the Johansen Cointegration Test and ARDL bounds test, and the validity of the Wagner and Keynes hypothesis in Turkey was determined by the Granger Causality test. The analysis periods are divided into two periods, 2006:01-2011:12 and 2012:01-2021:03, due to the influx of refugees in Turkey in the beginning of 2012 and the significant increase in public expenditures, especially in social transfer expenditures. The aim here is to determine the effect of the increase in social transfer expenditures on the relationship between economic growth and public expenditures. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was no cointegration relationship between public expenditures and growth in three separate periods, and as a result of the Granger Causality test, while Wagner Hypothesis and Keynes Hypothesis were invalid in the 2006:01- 2011:12 periods, both hypotheses were found in the 2012:01-2021:03 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler: