Özet:

The main purpose of this study is examine the effects of budget policies on the Middle Income Trap theoretically and empirically in Turkey for 1996:Q1-2019: Q4 period. The stationarity of the series was examined by ADF and PP unit root tests, and the cointegration relations between the series were examined by Maki (2012) test. Regression analysis made with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. Causality relationships were examined by VECM method. In the regression analysis it was determined that 1% increase in public expenditures raise national income per capita in Turkey between 0.93% and 1.04% while increases in human development level raises it between 0.49% and 0.59%. It was found that there are two way causality relationships between national income per capita and public expenditures, between R&D expenditures and public expenditures and between R&D expenditures and high-tech product exports in the short term, while one way causality exists from public expenditures to human development level and high-tech product exports, from per capita national income to R&D expenditures, high-tech product exports and human development level. In the long term, it was found that mutual causality exists between national income per capita and public expenditures, between national income per capita and human development level and between public expenditures and human development level whereas there is one way causality from R&D expenditures to public expenditures, per capita national income and human development level and from high-tech product exports to per capita national income and human development.

Anahtar Kelimeler: