Özet:

The impact of economic crises in Turkey on foreign trade and competitiveness was studied for the 1990:M01-2018:M06 period. The stagnation of the series; ADF and PP unit root tests have been studied and the series has been found to be I 1. The integration relationships have been tested by the Johansen test and the series have been shown to be integrated. Long and short-term analyses have been carried out with the VECM method and the world’s national income increases per person have not affected the exports of Turkey in the short period, increased in the long period, increased in the real effective currency rate has not affected the exports of Turkey in the short period, reduced in the long period, the national income per person in Turkey and real effective currency increases in the imports have increased in the short period and in the long period, the long-term effects have been greater. In the 1994 crisis the exports and imports of Turkey decreased in the short term, not affected in the long term, in the 2001 crisis the foreign trade was not affected in the short term, increased in the long term, in the 2008 crisis the imports decreased in the short term, and the exports increased in the long term. The errors correction mechanisms of the models work. Causal relationships have been studied with the Granger test and the national income per person in the world and the export of Turkey, the national income per person in Turkey and the import of Turkey and the export of Turkey and the import of two-way, real-effective exchange rate to import and the national income per person in Turkey to real-effective exchange rate have been identified one-way causal relationships. Between real effective exchange rate and exports there is no causal relationship.

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