Abstract:

Purpose -  This paper investigates the extent to which the implementation of mobile number portability affects the customer churn in the short run and long run. The aim is to calculate the market shares of the operators based on students’ operator preference rates for the first six months and the first 18 months of the implementation period and to predict operators' future market share under the assumptions that students will continue to behave the same in preferring operators and firms’ policies will remain unchanged. Methodology -   A face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 1709 students at Cukurova University in 2017. Subscriber changes in the first six months after the implementation and in the first 18 months after the implementation were analyzed for the possibility that subscribers might react later. Using the Markov chain method, the transition probability matrix showing the market share of the three mobile telephone service providers was constructed and the stationarity matrix was calculated. Findings- After six months from the introduction of mobile number porting, Turkcell has the highest customer retention rate with 91.7% followed by Avea (now merged with and owned by Turk Telekom) with 3.3% difference and Vodafone with 6.9% difference. After 18 months from the introduction of mobile number porting, customer retention rates of the three operators were balanced at about 91%, and operators lost customers to each other at about the same rate. Conclusion- Turkcell will maintain its leadership in the short run with a decrease in its market share and the market share of the three operators will be balanced in the long run.

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