Abstract:

This study analyzed the relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign trade in Turkey for the period 1982-2014. The Zivot-Andrews structural broken unit root test that allowed a break in the study was applied. The unit root tests resulted in the series’ level values found that the unit root was contained, and the first differences were taken and observed that they became stable. The study was conducted by Gregory-Hansen’s structural breakable matching test to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables. According to Gregory-Hansen’s integration test results, CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign trade have been found to have a long-term integration relationship. The analysis of the long-term relationships between the variables with the integration relationship has been analyzed by the FMOLS equalization predictor where structural breakdowns can be included in the analysis as a doll variable. Turkey’s economic growth and 1% increase in foreign trade increases its CO2 emissions by 0.575% and 0.079% respectively. The findings show that, parallel to these developments in the economy, environmental quality is affected negatively.

Abstract:

In this study, the relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign trade has been analyzed for the period 1982-2014 in Turkey. In the study, the Zivot-Andrews structural fracture unit root test, which allowed a break, was applied. As a result of the unit root tests, it was observed that the units had unit roots in the level values and they became stationary when the first differences were taken. Whether or not there is a long-term relationship between the variables was investigated by the Gregory-Hansen structural fracture cointegration test. According to the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test results, it is seen that there is a long-lasting coexistence relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign trade. Analysis of long-term relationships among variables with cointegration relation was analyzed by the FMOLS cointegration estimator where structural breaks can be included as dummy variables. Turkey's economic growth and foreign trade 1% increase it increases CO2 emissions 0.575% and 0.079% ratio. Findings show that environmental quality is affected negatively in parallel with these developments in the economy.

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