Abstract:

This study analyses the impact of currency currency in Turkey on import flows using the ARDL border test (bound test) and error correction model. The currency is measured by the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). According to the findings obtained in the study, there was no statistically meaningful relationship between the currency rate and the import variables. In addition, an increase in real effective exchange rates in accordance with the theoretical expectations positively affects imports. Finally, again, according to expectations, the impact of the upcoming increase in the national income of Turkey on imports has been positive.

Keywords:

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on import volumes in Turkey by conducting autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach and error correction representation. The volatilities of exchange rate is measured by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The results show that there is no statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate volatility and import volumes. In addition, an increase in real effective exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact on import volumes in line with theoretical expectations. Finally, an increase in national income produces positive effects on import as expected.