Özet:

The open and emerging economies are largely affected by world demand, trade restrictions such as tariffs and quotas in foreign trade, exchange rates and fluctuations in exchange rates. This issue was requested by using current data for Turkey which included in the developing countries group, with the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. For this purpose, two different models were established. The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on exports and imports were analyzed using the ARDL test approach using monthly data for the period January 2010 to May 2019. The results obtained by estimating the first model, in which the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on exports, showed that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on exports in the short term and the real effective exchange rate has a significant negative effect on exports in the long term. The results obtained by estimating the second model that investigated the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on imports showed that the exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on imports in the short and long term; real effective exchange rate has no significant effect on imports in the short term but has a significant negative effect on the long term.

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