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ÖZ Bu çalışmada amaç, 2004-2018 yılları arasında Türkiye’de turizm sektörüne sağlanan teşviklerin turizm talebi üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Modellerde kullanılan bağımlı değişken, net turizm geliri iken bağımsız değişkenler, turizme yönelik teşvikli istihdam, teşvikli sabit yatırım ve teşvikli belge adedidir. Bu amaçla değişkenler arasındaki eştümleşme ilişkisi yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Gregory ve Hansen (1996) ile Hatemi- J (2008) eştümleşme testi ile test edilmiştir. Ayrıca yapısal kırılma varlığında Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, serilerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği belirlenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi sonucuna göre ise sabit yatırımlar, belge adedi ve istihdam arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Anahtar Kelimeler: Turizm Talebi, Yatırım Teşvikleri, Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi, Nedensellik Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: H2, Z3, C22
The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of the incentives provided to the tourism sector in Turkey between the years 2004-2018 on tourism demand. The dependent variable used in the models is the net tourism income while the independent variables, encouraged employment for tourism, encouraged fixed investment and encouraged document. For this purpose, the matching relationship between the variables was tested by the Gregory and Hansen (1996) and Hatemi-J (2008) matching test, which allowed structural breakdown. In addition, a causal analysis of the existence of structural breakdown was made by Toda-Yamamoto (1995) . According to the results obtained, it has been determined that the series have been working together for a long period of time. According to the cause analysis, there was a double cause relationship between fixed investments, documented individuality and employment. Keywords: Tourism Demand, Investment Incentives, Structually Disruptible Egging Analysis, Cause Analysis JEL Classification: H2, Z3, C22
ABSTRACT In this study, the aim is to analyze the impact of incentives provided to the tourism sector in Turkey between 2004 and 2018 on tourism demand. In this study, the dependent variable used in the models is net tourism income while the independent variables are incentive employment toward tourism, incentive fixed investment and incentive documents for tourism. For this purpose, the cointegration relationship between the variables has been tested by Gregory and Hansen (1996) and Hatemi-j (2008) cointegration test which allowed structural breaks. Additionally, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality analysis has been performed in the presence of structural break. According to the results, it has been determined that the series acted together in the long term. According to the causality analysis result, there is a bi-directional causality relationship among the fixed investments, the number of documents and employment. Key Words: Tourism Demand, Investment İncentives, Cointegration Analysis With Structural Breaks, Causality Analysis JEL Classification: H2, Z3, C22
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