Özet:

According to offensive realism, states cannot be certain about the intentions of other states and, based on the belief that these states possess the potential to launch an attack, perceive them as a threat. The primary imperative for states to ensure their security and survival is to amass more power, ultimately aspiring to attain hegemonic status. From the perspective of offensive realism, states that achieve regional hegemony will view the regional dominance of major powers in other areas as a motive for potential aggression and may harbor intentions to attack, as they prefer to avoid the emergence of rivals. The US and China, stand as the two most powerful actors in today’s world. Following World War II, the US emerged as the hegemonic power but is now facing increasing competition from China. China is perceived as the biggest threat by the US and plays a pivotal role in shaping American military, economic, and commercial policies. The South China Sea remains one of the most contested areas in the power competition between these two actors. From an offensive realist perspective, the study argues that there is a great power competition between the US and China, that it has security, economic, political and commercial dimensions, and that both actors intend to attack and threaten each other. From this perspective, the study concludes that the most critical area of this conflict and threat is the South China Sea, where a regional hegemony competition is taking place and an aggressive conflict is inevitable.

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