Abstract:

The theory of secular stagnation was first used in 1939 by Alvin Hansen in reference to the American economy during the Great Depression. After the seventy years after Hansen's theory, the global crisis and the subsequent developments that occurred after it brought the issue of permanent stagnation back to the agenda. After the global crisis the advanced countries growth rate drastically declined and thereafter these countries has been suffering secular stagnation. Also, the economic crisis that began in 2008 in the financial markets of the advanced economies has spread, in a variety of ways, into developing countries. In this study, the effect of growth in advanced countries on Turkish growth rate is examined by vector auto regression (VAR) model, Impulse-Response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The model which consists of US growth rate, Europe growth rate, Japan growth and Turkey growth rate is estimated for the period of 1980-2019. According to the results of the analysis European countries growth affects Turkey more than the US growth and the impact from Japan is found to be limited.

Keywords: