Abstract:

After the 2008 crisis, global trade policies began to change. Free trade has left its place to the conservative trade concept. The first war began. When the Kur wars did not result, trade wars began to come to the forefront. In 2018, Trump officially launched trade wars against many countries. The trade war began to expand with China’s anti-massiliation movement. 50% of the world’s economy is dependent on trade. This is why increasing protective policies lead to the degradation of global trade and economy. Many countries, including China, the EU, the United States, are negatively affected by trade and currency wars. Over the past two years, the growth in the world economy and trade has decreased due to trade wars. This study examined the potential impacts of trade and currency wars launched after 2008. The data used in the study was collected from institutions such as DB, OECD, IMF, WTO. The variables used in the study are total trade (% GDP), average tariff rates, trade freedom index, dollar supply (M1) and GDP. In the analysis section of the study, the Johansen equalization and Granger causality test were performed for the period between 1970-2019. Relationships between the series have been identified. Trade freedom, tariffs and GDP are the cause of the total trade. The total trade is due to the dollar supply and GDP’s Granger. According to the results of the analysis, the dollar supply and tariffs have a negative impact on trade. GDP affects global trade in a positive direction. As a result, if these wars continue, the world economy will continue to crush in the future. Furthermore, global economic risks and global political risks will continue to increase due to trade wars.

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