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Çalışmada konaklama fiyatları ve döviz kurlarının Türkiye’yi ziyaret eden turist sayılarına etkisi 2005:1-2018:6 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak aylık konaklama fiyat endeksi ve Türk Lirası’nın Türkiye’nin önemli kaynak pazarlarının paralarına karşı aylık ortalama nominal kurları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak Hacker & Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik testi ve seriler arasında asimetrik nedensellik analizleri için Hatemi-J(2012) bootstrap asimetrik nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre konaklama fiyatları ve Türkiye’ye olan turist akışı arasında %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde simetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ziyaretçi sayılarından Euro ve Pound kurlarına doğru simetrik nedensellik bulunmuştur. Çalışmada sadece ziyaretçi sayısındaki negatif şoklar ve Pound kurundaki pozitif şoklar arasında asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Bu bulgulara göre Türkiye’ye olan turist akışının sürdürülebilir olması için konaklama fiyatlarına dikkat edilmesi ve özellikle Birleşik Krallık’tan gelecek potansiyel turistler için pazarlama stratejileri üretirken Pound/TL kurunun dikkate alınması gerekmektedir.
The study has studied the impact of accommodation prices and exchange rates on the number of tourists visiting Turkey for the 2005:1-2018:6 period. As independent variables, the monthly accommodation price index and the average monthly nominal rates of the Turkish Lira against the currencies of the major resource markets in Turkey were used. As a method in the study, Hackers & Hatemi-J (2006) applied the Hatemi-J(2012) bootstrap asymmetric causality test for the bootstrap causality test and asymmetric causality analysis between series. According to the findings obtained, there is a symmetrical causal relationship between the accommodation prices and the tourist flow to Turkey at the level of significance of 10%. There was a symmetrical reason from the number of visitors to the Euro and Pound rates. The study found an asymmetrical causal relationship between the negative shocks in the number of visitors and the positive shocks in the Pound Course. According to these findings, it is necessary to pay attention to the accommodation prices in order for the tourist flow to Turkey to be sustainable, and especially when creating marketing strategies for potential tourists from the UK, the Pound/TL rate should be taken into account.
The study investigates the effects of accommodation prices and exchange rates on the number of tourists visiting Turkey for the period 2005:1-2018:6. Monthly accommodation price index and monthly average nominal exchange rates of the Turkish Lira against the currencies of important source countries are used as independent variables. Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality test and asymmetric causality approach developed by Hatemi-J (2012) are used for the eresearch. Findings reveal a symmetric causality relationship from accommodation prices to the number of tourists at 10% significance level. There is also a symmetric causality relationships running from the number of visitors and to each of Euro and Pound exchange rates. The only asymmetric causality relationship found runs from the negative shocks in number of visitors to positive shocks in Pound exchange rates. Results implicate careful pricing of accommodation services and inclusion of Pound/TL rate in marketing strategies for potential tourists from the UK in order for Turkey to have a sustainable tourist inflow.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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