Özet:

Understanding the relationship between money supply growth, interest rates and spending/income volumes is an important issue for central banks and policy makers. The accuracy and effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the correct interpretation of changes in monetary aggregates, current and future expenditure/income and inflation movements. The central bank, whose main objective of monetary policies is to control inflation, can intervene in the total expenditures on goods and services in the economy by affecting the growth rate of money and credit supply. In this study, the ex-post prediction of the real M2 series and also the relationship between Real M2 and Industrial Production are examined. In this framework, some forecast models were formed and and discussed. Estimating RM2 using MA(1) and ARMA(0,0) yield reasonable results. In addition, industrial production (dlY) and real money supply (dlrM2) were determined together using various VAR models. The best VAR model includes the lagged values ​​of the endogenous variables dlY and dlrM2. The Granger Causality Test shows that RM2 does not cause Y, but Y does cause RM2. This result shows that the Central Bank determines the size of the money supply by looking at the level of economic activity.

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