Bu çalışmada, orta gelir düzeyine sahip seçilmiş 8 MENA ülkesi; Cezayir, Mısır, İran, Irak, Ürdün, Lübnan, Tunus ve Türkiye için ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketiminin co2 emisyonları üzerindeki etkisi belirlenmeye çalışılmaktadır. 1988-2014 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığını göz önünde bulunduran panel veri analizi yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığı; yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve ortak faktörleri göz önünde bulunduran ikinci kuşak birim kök testlerinden Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) testiyle incelenmiştir, eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Westerlung-Edgerton (2007) LM bootstrap testiyle, Eşbütünleşme analizinden sonra uzun dönem katsayılarını tahmin etmek için AMG (Arttırılmış Ortalama Grup tahmincisi, Augmented Mean Group estimator) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca nedensellik ilişkisi Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) testiyle incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda; ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ile co2 emisyonları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki mevcuttur. Ülkelerin enerji tüketimlerindeki 1 birimlik yüzde artış co2 emisyonlarını 0.56 birim arttırmaktadır. Enerji tüketiminin etkilerinden sonra ekonomik büyümenin etkilerine bakıldığında ekonomik büyümedeki 1 birimlik artış co2 emisyonunu -0.90 birim azaltmaktadır. Böylece enerji tüketiminin co2 emisyonunu artırdığına, ekonomik büyümenin ise co2 emisyonlarını azalttıkları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. İlaveten enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru ve ekonomik büyümeden enerji tüketimine doğru çift yönlü nedensellik mevcuttur. Co2 emisyonundan ekonomik büyümeye doğru ve ekonomik büyümeden co2 emisyonuna doğru çift yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. İlaveten enerji tüketiminden co2 emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin mevcut olduğu görülmektedir.
In this study, 8 selected MENA countries with an average income level; Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia and Turkey are trying to determine the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. The 1988-2014 period was analyzed using the panel data analysis method, taking into account the horizontal cutting dependency using annual data. The stagnation of the series was studied by Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) from the second-generation unit root tests taking into account the horizontal cutting dependency and common factors, the presence of the matching relationship was used by the Westerlung-Edgerton (2007) LM bootstrap test, the AMG (Augmented Medium Group Predictor, Augmented Mean Group estimator) method to predict long-term ratings after the matching analysis. The causality relationship was also studied by the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) test. The study finds a long-term relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The country’s energy consumption increased by 1 per cent, increasing its CO2 emissions by 0.56 per cent. After the effects of energy consumption, considering the effects of economic growth, the 1 unit increase in economic growth reduces CO2 emissions by -0.90 units. The result is that energy consumption increases its CO2 emissions, while economic growth reduces its CO2 emissions. There is a two-way reason for the consumption of energy from improved energy to economic growth and from economic growth to energy consumption. There has been a two-way cause from CO2 to economic growth and from economic growth to CO2 emissions. There is a one-way causal relationship between the energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
In this study, selected eight MENA countries with middle income; Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the impact on emissions and energy consumption for economic growth of Tunisia and Turkey are determined. It was analyzed by using panel data analysis method which takes horizontal cross-sectional dependence by using the annual data of 1988-2014 period. The stability of the series; The second generation unit root tests, which take into account the cross-sectional dependence and common factors, have been studied by Hadri-Kurozumi (2012) test, the presence of cointegration relationship with Westerlung-Edgerton (2007) LM bootstrap test, AMG (Increased Mean Group) Estimator, Augmented Mean Group estimator method was used. In addition, the causality relationship was investigated by Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) test. In the results of working; There is a long-term relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions. One percent increase in energy consumption of countries increases the emissions by 0.56 units. Considering the effects of economic growth after the effects of energy consumption, an increase in economic growth by 1 unit reduces emissions by -0.90 units. Thus, it is concluded that energy consumption increases emissions and economic growth decreases emissions. In addition, there is bi-directional causality from energy consumption to economic growth and from economic growth to energy consumption. A bi-directional causality from emission to economic growth and from economic growth to emissions has been found. In addition, there is a one-way causality relationship from energy consumption to emissions.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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