Abstract:

Using a nine-equation econometric model, this study simulates supply and demand balances under different scenarios. One major finding indicates that Turkey will become a sugar importer if she becomes a member of the EU in 2014. The Turkish sugar industry is forecasted to be down sized by one-third and stabilize at 1.5 million tons of sugar production capacity. As a result, 35 percent of sugar acreage and one-third of sugar-beet producers will be driven out of the sector. Hence, steps will have to be taken to alleviate the economic and environmental problems during the transitional stage. Studies are needed to determine alternative production ventures, substitute crops, new livestock and even non-agricultural commodities and services for those who will face loss of jobs and income as a result of the closure of some sugar refineries. The best way for the refineries to be able to compete domestically and internationally is to upgrade production technologies and increase their scales through merging and foreign investment. Productivity should also be boosted in the sugar-beet fields through the introduction of high yielding sugar-beet seeds with higher polar-sugar ability, together with appropriate agronomic practices.

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