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Yatırımcıların rasyonel hareket ettiğini varsayan geleneksel finansın aksine piyasalardaki belirsizlik süreçlerinde yatırımcıların rasyonellikten uzak kararlar almalarının açıklanması amacıyla ortaya çıkan davranışsal finans, yatırımcı davranışlarını konu edinmektedir. Davranışsal finansa göre yatırımcıların inanç ve tercihleri doğrultusunda finansal piyasalarda pozisyon aldığı; böylece yatırımlarında rasyonel davranamadıkları için de piyasalardaki getirilerde sapmalara neden oldukları belirlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, kripto para piyasaları ile yatırımcı duyarlılığı arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada yatırımcı duyarlılığı göstergesi olarak Tüketici Güven Endeksi, kripto paralardan en çok işlem hacmine sahip Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Ripple ve Cardano dikkate alınmıştır. Veri seti için Ekim 2017-Mart 2022 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. Kripto para piyasaları ile yatırımcı duyarlılığı arasındaki ilişkinin tespit edilmesi için yapılan fourier Toda-Yamamoto (2016) nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ise Tüketici Güven Endeksi ile Tether ve Cardano arasında çift yönlü; Tüketici Güven Endeksi’nden Bitcoin’e, Ripple’den Tüketici Güven Endeksi’ne doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Böylece Tüketici Güven Endeksi, Bitcoin, Tether ve Cardano’nun; Tether, Ripple ve Cardano, Tüketici Güven Endeksi’nin nedeni olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar doğrultusunda kripto paralar içinde sadece Ethereum’un Tüketici Güven Endeksi’yle herhangi bir ilişkisinin olmadığı, Tether, Ripple ve Cordano’nun Tüketici Güven Endeksi’nde önemli bir faktör olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca Bitcoin, Tether ve Cardano’nun Tüketici Güven Endeksi’ndeki varlığına ilişkin kanıtları da kripto para piyasasında yer alan yatırımcıların kazançları açısından Tüketici Güven Endeksi’ni takip etmeleri gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.
Contrary to the traditional finance that assumes that investors behave rationally, behavioral finance arises in order to explain that investors are making decisions far from rationality in market uncertainty processes, investors behave. According to behavioral finance, investors take a position in the financial markets in accordance with their beliefs and preferences; therefore, because they are unable to behave rationally in their investments, they are also determined to cause disadvantages in returns in the markets. In this context, the study has studied the relationship between cryptocurrency markets and investor sensitivity. As an indicator of investor sensitivity in the study, the Consumer Trust Index was taken into account with the most volume of transactions from cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Ripple and Cardano. For the data set, the monthly data for the period of October 2017 to March 2022 was used. According to the fourier Toda-Yamamoto (2016) causality test, which was done to identify the relationship between cryptocurrency markets and investor sensitivity, it was achieved a double-sided causality relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index and Tether and Cardano; from the Consumer Confidence Index to Bitcoin, from Ripple to the Consumer Confidence Index. The Consumer Trust Index, Bitcoin, Tether and Cardano; Tether, Ripple and Cardano, is the cause of the Consumer Trust Index. According to the results, it has been found that in cryptocurrencies only Ethereum has no relationship with the Consumer Trust Index, and that Tether, Ripple and Cordano are an important factor in the Consumer Trust Index. The evidence of Bitcoin, Tether and Cardano’s presence in the Consumer Trust Index also shows that investors in the cryptocurrency market need to follow the Consumer Trust Index in terms of their profits.
Contrary to traditional finance, which assumes that investors act rationally; behavioral finance, which emerged to explain the irrational decisions of investors in uncertainty processes in the markets, deals with investor behavior. According to behavioral finance, investors take positions in financial markets in line with their beliefs and preferences; thus, it has been determined that they cause deviations in the returns in the markets because they cannot act rationally in their investments. In this context, in this study, the relationship between cryptocurrency markets and investor sentiment was investigated. In the study, Consumer Confidence Index as an indicator of investor sentiment, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Ripple and Cardano, which have the highest transaction volume from cryptocurrency, were taken into account. For the data set, monthly datas of the period October 2017-March 2022 were used. According to the result of fourier Toda-Yamamoto (2016) causality test conducted to determine the relationship between cryptocurrency markets and investor sentiment, there is a bidirectional relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index and Tether and Cardano; unidirectional causality from Consumer Confidence Index to Bitcoin, from Ripple to Consumer Confidence Index. Thus, the Consumer Confidence Index have been identified as the cause of Bitcoin, Tether and Cardano; Tether, Ripple, and Cardano have been identified as the cause of the Consumer Confidence Index. In line with the results, it has been determined that only Ethereum among cryptocurrencies has no relationship with the Consumer Confidence Index; Tether, Ripple, and Cordano were found to be an important factor in the Consumer Confidence Index. In addition, the evidences of Bitcoin, Tether and Cardano's presence in the Consumer Confidence Index reveal that investors in the cryptocurrency market should follow the Consumer Confidence Index in terms of their earnings.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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