Abstract:

Purpose: The recent extreme volatilities in exchange rates have made it important to examine exchange rate volatility on foreign trade. The aim of this study is to reveal the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on agricultural foreign trade in terms of different economic conjunctures in the period 2013:01-2021:08. Design/Methodology/Approach:ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1) model was used to measure exchange rate volatility. The effect of exchange rate volatility on the foreign trade effect was analyzed with the MSIAH model. Findings: According to the results, it has been revealed that the effect of real exchange rate volatility on foreign trade differs in terms of economic expansion and contraction regimes, and real exchange rate volatility in the economic expansion regime has an increasing effect on imports. Originalty/Value: The study is expected to draw more attention to agricultural problems in the recent period, and to contribute to the solution of problems related to agricultural foreign trade, especially in the exchange rate axis.

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