Abstract:

"Climate change" is a severe, worldwide problem that affects people's welfare, health, and future expectations with its effects on agricultural production and the economy. In this direction, the current study covering the period 1990-2019 examined the long- and short-term relationships between "Climate change," "Economic growth (Real GDP)," and "Food price index" in Turkiye. In the study, correlations between Climate change indicators-carbon dioxide emission, temperature, agricultural area series-Food price index, and Economic growth were estimated with the ARDL model. According to the ARDL boundary test results, the "effect of Economic growth on the Food price index" is lower than the "effect of Climate change on the Food price index" in the long run. In the long run, the "effect of changing carbon dioxide amount" on "food prices" is insignificant. "A probable rising temperature and expanding agricultural areas" will raise "food prices." In the short term, "the temperature rising in the past three periods" will cause "current period food prices" to fall, while "the decrease in agricultural areas in the previous period" will cause "food prices to rise." The study observed that "Food prices" have been more affected by "Climate changes."

Keywords: