Abstract:

In this study, the long-run relationship between Bitcoin and commercial commodities as gold, silver, and crude oil prices is examined under multiple structural breaks. The study investigates whether Bitcoin as a digital commodity can be an alternative investment tool in investment portfolios or not. In the first stage of the empirical analysis, the stationarity levels of the series were tested with traditional unit root tests and Carrion-i-Silvestre et al.’s (2009) m structural breaks unit root test. In the second stage, Maki (2012) cointegration test was applied. The results of the analysis show that there is a cointegration relationship between Bitcoin and the commercial commodity prices under structural break. In the third stage, the Dynamic Least Squares Method (DOLS) estimator was used to investigate the long-term coefficients. The results of the study indicate that in the long term, gold prices affect Bitcoin prices positively, while silver and crude oil affect it negatively. According to the results of the causality analysis made in the last stage, we determined a causality relationship from gold to Bitcoin. It is not found a causal relationship between Bitcoin and oil and silver prices.

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