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Bu çalışmanın amacı dünyanın en büyük dış ticaret fazlası veren ülkelerinden biri olan Çin’in bu dış ticaret performansında ülkede uygulanan döviz kuru rejiminin etkili olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla döviz kurlarının ihracat ve ithalat üzerindeki etkisinin tespit edilmesi gerekir. Bu çalışmada Çin’in reel döviz kuru ile ithalatı ve ihracatı arasındaki ilişki 1994:1-2018:4 dönemi çeyrek yıllık veriler kullanılarak Johansen eşbütünleşme, varyans ayrıştırma ve Granger nedensellik analizleri yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Uygulanan analizler sonucunda, Çin ihracatının reel döviz kurunun nedeni olduğu, ithalat ile ihracat arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğu, reel döviz kurunun ithalat ve ihracat üzerinde etkili olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Çin dalgalı döviz kuru rejimine geçse bile Çin dış ticaretinin fazla vermeye devam edeceği düşünülmektedir.
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the exchange rate regime applied in the country is effective in the performance of China, one of the world’s largest foreign trade excesses. The effect of exchange rates on exports and imports must be identified. In this study, the relationship between China's real currency and import and export was studied using quarter-year data from the 1994:1-2018:4 period with the help of Johansen's integration, variance division and Granger's causality analysis. The analysis found that China’s exports were the cause of the real exchange rate, there was a dual causal relationship between import and export, and that the real exchange rate had no effect on import and export. Even if China passes into the currency regime, it is believed that China’s foreign trade will continue to give too much.
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the exchange rate regime applied in China which is one of the biggest foreign trade surplus countries of the world, is effective on this performance. For this purpose, the effect of exchange rates on exports and imports should be determined. In this study the relationship between China’s real exchange rate and its exports and imports was investigated with the help of Johansen cointegration, variance decomposition and Granger causality analyzes by using quarterly data for the period 1994:1 – 2018:4. As a result of the analyzes performed, it was determined that Chinese exports are the cause of the real exchange rate, there is a bi-directional causality between exports and imports, and the real exchange rate has no effect on Chinese imports and exports. It is expected that China's foreign trade will continue to yield a surplus even if China moves to a floating exchange rate regime.
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