Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate the existence of a causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables of Turkey in January 2005-September 2016 and the credit ratings announced by Moody's Investors Service Inc. of the credit rating agency. In the economic analysis part of the study, CPI, GDP, FDI and unemployment rates of Turkey are taken as data. On the other hand, credit ratings and views announced by credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service Inc., which has the largest market share in the world, have been reorganized and numerically analyzed. In the analysis, first whether the series were stationary or not was investigated and then Johansen cointegration test was applied. As a result of the cointegration test, it was concluded that there might be a long-term relationship between the series, but no causal relationship between credit ratings and macroeconomic data.

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