Abstract:

Population ageing has important implications for the sustainability of social security schemes. Debate is on whether and how to include demographic trends in the determination of the ideal pension age. We determine the ideal pension age for Turkey, based on the developments taking place in both population structure and mortality, by examining conventional and prospective measures of population ageing, and by comparing different decision criteria. Proposed pension ages based on constant remaining life expectancy and intergenerational fairness are higher than those using constant support ratios, show fluctuations over time and are higher for the female than male population. The suggested pension ages differed strongly from the official ones, although less in 2010. The different measures, old-age definitions, and decision criteria result in different alternatives for the ideal pension age with differing popularity for different stakeholders. The observed sex differences and the on-going population and mortality trends demand flexibility

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