Abstract:

Among the factors that affect the price changes in the stock market are the future expectations about the economy. In the measurement of the expectations, various leading indicators are used. One of these indicators is the economic confidence index. The purpose of the study is to examine whether there is a long-run relationship between economic confidence index and stock indices using monthly data for the period of January 2012 to October 2016. In the study, BIST 100, BIST Industrial and BIST Services indices are used and whether or not there is a long-term relationship between the series is investigated by the Engle-Granger (1987) cointegration method. The findings show that there is a long-run relationship between economic confidence index and the stock indices. In addition, the error correction model results show that economic confidence index is the Granger cause of the BIST 100, BIST Industry, BIST Services indices.

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