Abstract:

In developing countries, the problem of money residence has been faced especially after passing to flexible currencies. The increase in demand for the currencies of the developing countries with the abandonment of the fixed currency system in the 1970s and the transition to the flexible currency system has begun to weaken the effectiveness of the national currency policies of the developing countries. In the last period, the desired success in the Turkish economy has not been achieved by the intervention of the central bank in the market with foreign exchange offers. It is known that the proliferation reduces or even destroys this effect. To explain this situation, the concept of dollarization has been studied only by linear econometric methods. However, the results of the analysis have found that the dollarization variable shows a nonlinear structure. The study first tried to identify the determiners of the currency residence variable, from here to here, with the help of the Threshold Autoregressive models, forecasts were made and forecasts were made for the future.