Abstract:

The aim of this study is to examine changes in fertility ideals and intentions of women and fertility gap at both macro and micro level for the 1993-2018 period using data of Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS), and to analyze fertility intentions of currently married women by parity, i.e. number of children ever born, using 2018 TDHS data employing descriptive and logistic regression methods. According to the findings, while ideal number of children increased in the 25-year period, intended number of children decreased. Although fertility gap is positive when using conventional TFR, it is negative when adjusted TFR is used, meaning actual fertility is greater than ideal or intended number of children. There has been an increase in the level of pronatalism in Türkiye recently, but it would be wrong to conclude that this is reflected in intentions and behaviors. Our multivariate findings covering all parities show that age and child-related variables are important determinants of women's fertility intention. Additionally, region, mother tongue and use of contraceptive methods are important. Socioeconomic variables, however, were not found to be significantly associated with birth intention. Some of these were found to be significant in intention for progression to first- and second-births.

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