Abstract:

Having the second biggest share in total exports after manufacturing industry, tourism receipts of Turkey, refers to the importance of tourism as an export-led growth strategy. This study aims to determine the relationship between tourism receipts and long-term economic growth for Turkey. To this end, the variables specified in the model are determined as Gross Domestic Product, Tourism Receipts and Real Exchange Rate. In the study covered the period 1972-2014 using annual data, Johansen co-integration test was performed to determine the long-term relations. As a result two co-integration vectors have been found, meaning that tourism incomes have had a positive effect on Turkey’s economic growth. The results of the study show that 1% increase in tourism receipts leads to economic growth by 0.314%. Granger causality test results also verify that the existence of cointegration relationship. Based on this evidence, it may be stated that tourism directly affects Turkey's economic growth.

Keywords: