Abstract:

In this study, the long-term relationship between the BIST100 index and some macroeconomic factors is examined. For this purpose, M2 money supply, real effective exchange rate, industrial production index, up to one-month time deposit interest variables are analyzed in the study for the time period 2009: 01 - 2018: 09. During the period which is examined, the structural breaks occur in the series due to the reasons such as the crises in the economy, policy changes, political problems, etc. First, the stationarity of the series was examined by considering the structural breaks, then the ARDL model was estimated. As a result, the long run relationship between the BIST100 index and selected macroeconomic variables has been found to be consistent with the economic expectations of the results.