Abstract:

In order to sustain human life without problems, a rational planning is required for the conservation and use of existing water resources. The potential of future water sources should be determined as the first step in such planning. Therefore, river flow forecasting is necessary to provide basic information about a variety of problems related to the operation of river systems. In this study, the long-term daily flow values of the Zamantı River-Değirmenocağı, Zamantı River-Ergenuşağı, and Eğlence River-Eğribük stations in the Seyhan Basin in Turkey were examined. In order to predict the forward flow rate from past flow measurement values, the Adaptative Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model was trained using Backpropagation (BP), Hybrid Learning (HB), and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithms, and the results were compared. The performance of ANFIS models created with different input parameters using Grid Partitioning (GP) and Fuzzy C-Means Clustering (FCM) methods was also examined. The evaluation criteria used for comparison were Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Determination Coefficient (R2), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The best results for R2 values of 0.6854, 0.9242, and 0.9373 were obtained for FMSs using the BP model. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the BP algorithm could be used more successfully and effectively than other algorithms for training ANFIS parameters in nonlinear problems.

Keywords: