Abstract:

Demographic ageing (continuous increase of the percentage of old people of a population) depends on the evolutions of fertility, mortality and migration as well as on the age structure of the population which reflects the changes of the three above mentioned components in the remote past. In this article we examine the consequences of each of the three demographic components on demographic ageing in two European countries (France and Greece); two countries significantly differentiated as far as their trajectory is concerned during the last two centuries. From the viewpoint of methodology, in order to evaluate these consequences we adopted the simulation method and more specifically, each time we kept one of the three components stable for the level it is characterized at the beginning of the study period and we estimated the amount and the percentage of the over-sixty-year old persons which we would have in this case in the early 1990's (amount and percentage we compared to the corresponding ones estimated around 1993). At the same time we tried to estimate the specific weight of the early structures of population in the two countries on the basis of today's demographic ageing: thus, we proceeded to identical simulations with different population structures at the starting point (stable populations corresponding to the tables on mortality for 1950 in France and I960 in Greece). The basic conclusions of this study allow us to see the significant specific weight of the mortality change on demographic ageing (ageing from above), parallel to the already known role of fertility (ageing from the basis of the pyramid). On the contrary, the role of migration currents appears limited and their influence has the opposite direction in these two countries of study; slight acceleration of ageing in Greece, slight slowing down in France. At the same time, demographic ageing in the early l 990's in both countries is smoother than that expected if their populations were stable. Finally, in France as well as in Greece the acceleration of ageing is inevitable as significant changes in fertility are absent. Mortality is expected to play a more and more significant role in the mid and remote future to such an extent that the prolongation of the expected life at birth will be more and more due to gains of life for the over-sixty-year-old persons.

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