Özet:

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and exchange rate using monthly data covering both the long and short periods of Turkey (2005:01-2019:10). In addition, the determination of the factors affecting the currencies in Turkey in order to effectively direct exchange rates has been attempted to help regulators and supervisory authorities in Turkey keep the currencies under control. Method - Time series analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between currency and macroeconomic indicators. The unit root test has also been applied to detect the stagnation of the variables taken into the scope of application. As a result of the unit root test, the series are stagnant from different stages, and the long and short-term relationships between the variables are determined, the ARDL limit test has been done. The results - according to the ARDL border test resulted that there was an equalization relationship between currency and macroeconomic variables and in the long term there was a positive relationship between currency and interest and inflation while there was a negative relationship between currency and unemployment, money supply (M1) and foreign trade balance. In the short term, a negative relationship was found between the exchange rate and the exchange balance, while a positive relationship was found between the exchange rate and all other variables under the analysis scope. The value of the error correction model is also negative and statistically meaningful. Debate - Currency currency today is one of the most discussed economic issues among macroeconomic indicators worldwide. According to the theories, macroeconomic factors play an important role in the determination of exchange rates. The determination of the factors affecting the currencies in order to effectively direct the currencies is of importance for economic policy regulatory and supervisory authorities.

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