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11
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40
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12
Türkiye’de kamu kesiminin milli ekonomi içerisindeki payı göreli olarak artırmaktadır. GSMH’deki büyüme ile birlikte, milli ekonomi içerisindeki kamu kesiminin payının da büyümesi ancak aynı dönemde işsizlik oranlarının artması dikkat çekmiş, aralarında bir ilişki olup olmadığı bu araştırmaya konu edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki kamu harcamaları ve vergi yükünün işsizlik üzerine etkisi 1980-2017 dönemi yıllık veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analizde iki model tahmin edilmiştir. Modellerde yer alan her bir değişkenin durağanlık düzeyini kontrol etmek için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi ve Phillips-Perron (PP) testi uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin tespiti Engle ve Granger (1987) yöntemleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik analiz sonucunda uzun dönemde kamu harcamalarındaki 1 birimlik artışın işsizliği 0.1 birim artırdığı, vergi yükündeki 1 birimlik artışında işsizliği 0.18 birim artırdığı sonucu elde edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde ise modelin hata düzeltme terimleri çalışmakta, yani seriler arasında kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar, uzun dönemde ortadan kalkmaktadır.
The share of the public sector in the national economy has been increasing relatively in Turkey. Along with the growth in GNP, it is attracting attention that rising both the share of the public sector in the national economy and also rising the unemployment rates at the same period. It constitutes the subject of this study whether there is a relationship or not between them. In this study, the effects of public expenditures and tax here on unemployment were investigated, by using the annual data within the period of 1980-2018 in Turkey. Two models were estimated in the analysis. In order to check the stationarity level of each of variable in the models the Expanded Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test have been applied. The determination of the co-integration relationship between the variables has been analyzed by Engle and Granger (1987) methods. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been determined that the 1-unit increasing in public expenditures has increased the unemployment by 0.1 units and the 1-unit increasing in tax burden has increased the unemployment by 0.18 units in the long term. On the other hand, the error correction terms of the model has been working in the short term. In other words it has been determined that the deviations between the series in the short term have disappeared in the long term.
The share of public sector in the national economy has been increasing relatively in Turkey. Along with the growth in GNP, it is attracting attention that rising both the share of the public sector in the national economy and also rising the unemployment rates at the same period. It constitutes the subject of this study whether there is a relationship or not between them. In this study, the effects of public expenditures and tax burden on unemployment were investigated, by using the annual data within the period of 1980-2018 in Turkey. Two models were estimated in the analysis. In order to check the stationarity level of each of variable in the models the Expanded Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test have been applied. The determination of the co-integration relationship between the variables has been analyzed by Engle and Granger (1987) methods. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been determined that the 1-unit increasing in public expenditures has increased the unemployment by 0.1 units and the 1-unit increasing in tax burden has increased the unemployment by 0.18 units in the long term. On the other hand, the error correction terms of the model has been working in the short term. In other words it has been determined that the deviations between the series in the short term have disappeared in the long term.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Ulusal
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