Abstract:

The study was conducted to determine whether it is possible to monitor economic activity of Turkey in a proactive way with a holistic perspective for the period 2014:01 to 2020:12. For this purpose, unlike the traditional practice that examines the economic activity in one direction, bi-directional process with both production and consumption side data were proposed. Within the study the interaction of preliminary data(manufacturing capacity utilization rate and bank credits), which were chosen according to the high representation ability of economic activity in Turkey were investigated. Within the scope of the study, which is designed as a time series study, unit root and stationarity process tests, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality tests are performed, while information on the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) model are is also provided. The data set is available as open source*. In an environment, under the assumption that the credit channel mechanism of monetary policy is actively working and the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate is considered to be important, the interaction between bank credits and capacity utilization rate has been analyzed. In the shed of results of the study, it is aimed to provide foresight to the policy makers in terms of Turkish social structure and business life of Turkey.

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