Abstract:

In this study, the cointegration, and causality relationships between export, imports, and economic growth have been investigated in Turkey in the post-1980 period. The period that export-based industrialization policies were followed, is important in terms of foreign trade and economic growth relations. For the analysis, annual data for the period 1980-2020 were used. Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root test was preferred for the test of stationarity, For the cointegrating relationship, Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration analysis was preferred. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was preferred for the causality relationship. In the stationarity and cointegration analyzes, methods enabling single structural break were selected. According to the experimental findings of the study, the series are stationary at first difference. As regards the results of Gregory-Hansen cointegration analysis, there is long-term relationship between the series. Cointegration coefficients were estimated by DOLS, FMOLS and CCR methods. According to DOLS, in the long run, exports, imports and dummy variables have significant effects on economic growth. According to FMOLS and CCR, in the long run, exports have a significant effect on economic growth. In the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, reciprocal causality relationship between imports and economic growth, and one-way causality relationship from export to import and economic growth were determined.

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