Abstract:

In this study, some macroeconomic factors that have selected the determiners of the foreign trade gap in Turkey are examined for the 2006:Q1- 2018:Q3 period. The study used data about the external trade gap, overall budget expenditure, real GDP, total credit volume of the banking sector, M1 cash supply and real effective exchange rate. The data of the variables is obtained from the TCMB Electronic Data Distribution System (EVDS). The ARDL analysis method has been used to identify the matching relationship between the variables. According to the findings obtained, macroeconomic variables have a long-term statistically meaningful relationship between overall budget expenditure, real GDP and real effective exchange rate and external trade gap. Thus, it is clear that in the long term, when the overall budget expenditure, real GDP and real effective exchange rate rise, the external trade gap also increased. On the other hand, in the short period, the external trade gap has been determined to be in a statistically meaningful relationship with the real GDP in all periods, with the M1 cash supply only in the M1(-1) period, with the real effective exchange rate only in the level value.

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