Abstract:

In Turkey, the domestic migration movements began to rapidly increase in the 1950s and these domestic migration movements continue intensely today. In this study, the migration movements from rural to urban, which took place in Turkey between 1970-2014 years, were tried to explain with the Harris-Todaro Immigration Model. The data used in the study covered the years 1970-2014. Variables; crisis years, education (transport education) and structural changes in agriculture after 2000 are the percentage of rural population to the total population, the percentage of agricultural value added to the total value added and urban employment. The VAR model has been used to estimate the share of agricultural added value in total added value and the impact of urban employment on rural to urban migration movements that occurred in Turkey between the years 1970-2014. To identify the variable that is most exposed to the variables, a variable division was carried out and an effect-effect analysis was carried out to determine whether the variables that influence the variables can be used as a policy tool. Finally, the Granger Cause Test was conducted to determine the direction and source of the relationships between the variables. The results of the analyses were statistically meaningful relationships between rural migrations and urban employment and the share of agricultural added value in total added value in Turkey that occurred between 1970 and 2014. The findings found that in Turkey, migrations from rural to city occurring in the specified period can be explained by the Harris-Todaro Model.