Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship among geopolitical risk index (GPR) improved by the Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) and CDS for Turkey. In this study, it was used monthly dates of Turkey's geopolitical risk index and 5 year CDS between March 2010 and October 2020. In order to investigate the relationship between variables, it was first tested whether the series were stationary or not, and applied the Lee-Strazicich unit root tests, which also took structural breaks into account. Then, with the Hatemi-J causality test, it was investigated whether there is a causality relationship between variables, and if there is causality, the direction of the relationship was determined. According to our study, it was seen that the increase and decrease of geopolitical risks of Turkey effect the 5 year CDS. Furthermore, it was identified that the increase or the decrease occurring in Turkey's 5 year CDS have no causal effect on geopolitical risk of Turkey.

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