Özet:

CDS is an important indicator used in measuring the risk for a country or markets. In this study, the relationship between the CDS prime variable and the USD, EURO, CALTIN, BISANAY and active bond index (ATE) variables was studied with Diks and Panchenko (2006) nonlinear causality test and Fourier Toda Yamamoto causality test. According to the Diks and Panchenko (2006) test, there was no non-linear causal relationship between the CDS and the BIST Industry Index and the EURO variables. Test results from the CDS to the active bond index (ATE) 5. In the delay; if the CALTIN variable goes to the CDS, it indicates that there is a nonlinear relationship at the 1, 2 and 7 delay levels. In addition, in the 7th and 8th delays, the CDS values are USD values, 2nd and 3. In delays, the USD values are determined as the nonlinear cause of CDS. According to Fourier Toda Yamamoto’s test, there is a double causal relationship between the CDS primes and the Active Debt Index (ATE). At the same time, the BISTANAYI index has been found to be a unilateral cause from the USD, EURO and CALTIN variables to the CDS.

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