Abstract:

The fluctuations in the currencies and scores in the currencies cause increased risk and uncertainty environments to create unwanted effects on foreign trade in developing countries such as Turkey. In this context, the aim of the study in Turkey in the period 1997:01-2018:12 is to study the relationship between the exchange rate and the real exchange rate and the sectoral foreign trade. In the study, the standard deviation method based on moving average to measure the playfulness in exchange rates, ADF and PP unit root tests were used to test the stagnations of the series, while Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich unit root tests were used to test structural breakdowns. The causal relationship between the presence of structural breakdowns and the variables was studied by Toda-Yamamoto causal analysis using monthly data. According to the research findings, there is a causal relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign trade of the agriculture and mining sector, the real exchange rate and the foreign trade of the agriculture and manufacturing industry sector.

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