Özet:

Exchange rate volatility and external debt is one of the major economic problems for the economies of developing countries such as Turkey. In this context, the purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and gross total external debt stock, short-term external debt stock and long-term external debt stock by using quarterly data for the period 1998Q1-2020Q2 in Turkey. In the study, standard deviation method based on moving averages is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The stationarities of the series were tested by traditional ADF and PP unit root tests and Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich unit root tests, which takes into account structural breaks. The causality relationship between variables was tested by Toda-Yamamoto Causality analysis. According to the research findings, two-way causality relationship was found between exchange rate volatility and total gross external debt stock and long-term external debt stock. A one-way causality relationship from exchange rate volatility to short-term external debt stock has been found between exchange rate volatility and short-term external debt stock.

Anahtar Kelimeler: