Özet:

Today, increasing supply chain risks are encountered as a result of increasing natural disasters, rapid development of technology, shortening of product life, increasing costs, political reasons, uncertainties in supply and demand. Businesses have to systematically manage their supply chain risks in order to gain competitive advantage, meet customer expectations, increase their market share in the sector and maintain their sustainability. In the study, errors that occur in the demand planning process of a company in the air conditioning and heating sector were analyzed. In this study, due to the weaknesses of the Process FMEA method, it is aimed to introduce a new process-step approach based on Fuzzy SWARA-Fuzzy COPRAS to risk analysis. The aim is to improve the weaknesses of Process FMEA method in the way that expert decision makers cannot consider their knowledge and experience in evaluations. Fuzzy SWARA and Fuzzy COPRAS based process step MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) model is proposed for risk analysis. The SWARA method was used to determine the importance levels of the criteria, and the COPRAS method was used to sort the errors. According to this method, the most important errors; It has been determined that "the deficient production is noticed in the production deficit report as a result of incomplete or incorrect demand figures" and "the incomplete production is noticed at the S&OP (Sales and Operation Planning) meeting as a result of incomplete or incorrect demand numbers uploaded to the system. In future studies, the effectiveness of risk analysis can be evaluated with similar approaches and integrated into decision support systems and used in the evaluation of current or future scenarios.

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