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BRICS ÜLKELERİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE OCAK AYI ETKİSİNİN GARCH (p, q) MODELİ İLE TEST EDİLMESİ
2020
Journal:  
Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi
Author:  
Abstract:

Bu çalışmada, 1996-2016 yılları arasındaki aylık dönemlerde kapanış verileri kullanılarak, Türkiye ile BRICS ülkeleri borsalarının, elde edilen getiriler üzerindeki Ocak ayı etkisi, GARCH modeli ile incelenmiştir. Araştırmadan elde edilen verilere göre, ülkelerin genelinde, aylık bazda pozitif getiriler daha fazla olmak üzere, en çok negatif getirinin olduğu ülke borsasının, BİST olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Yapılan varyans dağılım analizi sonuçlarına göre, söz konusu getirilerin farklılaşması, BİST’te diğer ülkelere nazaran daha fazladır. Bununla birlikte, en yüksek getirinin sağlandığı ülke de Mart ayı getirisi olarak BİST olarak gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmanın konusu çerçevesinde, BRICS ülkeleri ile BIST’te, Ocak ayı etkisinin varlığından söz etme olanağı bulunmamaktadır. GARCH modeli çerçevesinde, ülkeler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olsa da, bu durum etkin piyasa hipotezini ortadan kaldıran bir durum olarak değerlendirilmemektedir.

Keywords:

BRICS countries and Turkey tested by the GARCH (p, q) model of January effect
2020
Author:  
Abstract:

In this study, using closing data in the monthly periods between 1996-2016 years, the effect of the exchanges in Turkey and the BRICS countries on the revenue in January was studied by the GARCH model. According to the data obtained from the study, it has been observed that the country’s stock exchange has a very negative return, with more positive return on a monthly basis throughout the country. According to the results of the variance distribution analysis, the differentiation of the revenues in question is greater than in other countries in the BIST. However, the country where the high revenue is provided has also been observed as a BIST as a March revenue. In the framework of the topic of the study, the BRICS countries and the BIST are unable to mention the existence of the January effect. In the framework of the GARCH model, although long-term relations between the countries, this situation is not considered a situation that eliminates the effective market hypothesis.

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2020
Author:  
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Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi

Field :   Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler

Journal Type :   Uluslararası

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Article : 416
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Basic Field of Social, Humanities and Administrative Sciences
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Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi