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Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin yumurta üretiminde önde gelen on ili ve Türkiye genelinin 1991-2017 verileri kullanarak 2018-2025 dönemi üretimlerini tahmin etmektir. Çalışmada geleceğe yönelik tahmin için ARIMA modelleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan 11 modelde de verilerin durağan olmadığı belirlenmiş ve verilerin birinci dereceden gecikmesi yaptırılarak durağanlaştırılmıştır. Çalışmada en uygun ARIMA modelini belirlemede AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE, gibi kriterler dikkate alınmıştır. ARIMA modelleri iller için; Konya (1,1,3), Afyon (4,1,0), Manisa (2,1,1), Balıkesir (0,1,2), İzmir (0,1,3), Çorum (0,1,0), Bursa (3,1,0), Kayseri (3,1,2), Ankara (5,1,0), Gaziantep (1,1,1) ve Türkiye (5,1,0) için olarak belirlenmiştir. 1991 ile 2017 yılları arasında bu on ilin Türkiye’nin yumurta üretimindeki payının %64,84’den, %81,01’e yükseleceği tespit edilmiştir. Kullanılan ARIMA modellerinde tahmin edilen değer ile gerçekleşen değer arasında +%0,11 ile -%2,37 değerleri arasında bir değişim hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca 1991-2017 dönemi ortalamasına göre Türkiye nüfusunun 2018-2025 yılı tahmini ortalama Türkiye nüfusundaki değişim +%23,84 olacaktır. 2018-2025 yılları arasında Türkiye ve onun on ilinin yumurta üretim tahmininde sadece Çorum (%15,25) ve Balıkesir (%14,94) illeri Türkiye’nin nüfus artış oranından daha az bir üretim artışı sağlayacakları tahmin edilmiştir. Genel itibariyle Türkiye’nin on ilinin gelecek 8 yıldaki yumurta üretim ortalaması geçen 27 yıl ortalamasına göre %24,94’lük bir artış gerçekleştirecektir. Bu sonuçlar dikkate alınınca Türkiye’nin gelecek yıllarda kişi başına yıllık 203 adet yumurta tüketim miktarını arttırmak için tüketicileri bilgilendirme çalışmalarına ihtiyacı olacaktır. Ayrıca gelecekte yumurta üretiminde önde bulunan bu on ilin gelecek yıllarda Türkiye’nin yumurta ihracatındaki paylarını artırabilmeleri için veteriner sağlık sertifikası gibi benzer sertifikaları alma çabalarına girmeleri ve ihracatta mevcut pazar paylarını en kötü ihtimalde koruyup yeni pazarlara yönelmeleri gerekmektedir.
The aim of this study is to predict the production of the 2018-2025 period by using the top ten years in Turkey's egg production and the data of 1991-2017 throughout Turkey. ARIMA models have been used in the study to predict the future. In the 11 models used in the study, the data was not stable and the data was stable by making a first-degree delay. In the study, the most suitable ARIMA model has been determined by criteria such as AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, MPE, and other. ARIMA models for the provinces; Konya (1,1,3), Afyon (4,1,0), Manisa (2,1,1), Fiskesir (0,1,2), Izmir (0,1,3), Çorum (0,1,0), Bursa (3,1,0), Kayseri (3,1,2), Ankara (5,1,0), Gaziantep (1,1,1) and Turkey (5,1,0) are determined. Between 1991 and 2017, the share of Turkey in egg production will rise from 64.84 per cent to 81.01 per cent. A change between the estimated value and the value occurring in the ARIMA models used is calculated between the value of +0.11 to -2.37%. Also, according to the 1991-2017 period average, the estimated 2018-2025 year of the population of Turkey will be the average change in the population of Turkey +23.84%. Between 2018-2025 years, in the estimate of the production of eggs of Turkey and its ten provinces, it is estimated that only Zorum (15.25%) and Fiskesir (14.94%) will provide a lower production increase than the rate of population growth in Turkey. In general, the average egg production of the 10 provinces of Turkey in the next 8 years will increase by 24.94% compared to the average of the last 27 years. Having these results taken into account, Turkey will need to work to inform consumers to increase its annual consumption of 203 eggs per person in the coming years. In addition, in the next decade, the leading in egg production, they must enter efforts to obtain similar certificates such as veterinary health certificates in order to increase their share in egg exports in the next decade, and keep their current market share in exports at the worst chance and turn to new markets.
This study aimed to estimate the egg production in ten leading egg-producing provinces and overall Turkey for the years between 2018 and 2025 using 1991-2017 data. ARIMA models were used for future estimations in the study. It was determined that the data in the 11 models to be employed in the study be non-stationary, therefore they were to convert to stationary series by one-year differencing. Criteria such as AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, and MPE were taken into consideration in determining the most suitable ARIMA model in the study. The ARIMA models for the provinces and overall Turkey were identified to be Konya (1,1,3), Afyon (4,1,0), Manisa (2,1,1), Balıkesir (0,1,2), İzmir (0,1,3), Çorum (0,1,0), Bursa (3,1,0), Kayseri (3,1,2), Ankara (5,1,0), Gaziantep (1,1,1), and Turkey (5,1,0). It was estimated based on the data of years between 1991 and 2017 that the share of these ten provinces in egg production of Turkey would rise from 64.84% to 81.01% in the coming eight years. In the ARIMA models employed, a change ranging from + 0.11% to -2.37% was calculated between the estimated value and the real value. Also, according to the average population between 1991 and 2017, the estimated average change in Turkey’s population for years between 2018 and 2025 was found to be +23.84%. It was estimated that given the egg production in the ten provinces and overall Turkey, only two provinces, namely Corum (15.25%) and Balikesir (14.94%), would make less egg production in comparison to the increase in the rate of the population growth in Turkey. Overall, it was determined that the average egg production in the coming eight years in ten province of Turkey would gain 24.94% increase compared to the average production in the last 27 years. Considering these results, it is necessary to conduct studies to inform the consumers so that the annual 203 egg consumption per capita could be increased in the coming years. In addition, these ten leading egg-producing provinces should spend efforts to get a veterinary health certificate or the like to increase Turkey’s share in exporting eggs, or they should at least maintain their current market share and try to get a place in the emerging markets.
Alan : Eğitim Bilimleri; Filoloji; Güzel Sanatlar; Hukuk; İlahiyat; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler; Spor Bilimleri
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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