Özet:

Purpose: The aim of the study is to estimate fiber cotton production of Turkey in the next five-year period using 1991-2018 period (28 years) data of TurkStat and to develop proposals in this direction. Design/methodology/approach: ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model was used to estimate fiber cotton production of the next years. Among the ARIMA models, the best statistical results were obtained in the ARIMA (4,1,4) model. Results: According to the model results, fiber cotton production of Turkey was estimated to be 1.040.643 tons in 2019, 1.060.005 tons in 2020, 1.075.850 tons in 2021, 1.091.931 tons in 2022 and 1.065.235 tons in 2023, respectively. In order to increase production and quality, input supports should be increased, and cotton support premiums should be determined taking into account production costs and world prices. Originality/value: In Turkey, a lot of study has been done on production estimate with time series of agricultural products. However, researches that estimate cotton production need to be increased and updated. The results of this study can contribute to the policies and measures that can be applied in cotton production.

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