Abstract:

The examination of population policies in Turkey depicts that there are two periods, pre-1960 period and post-1960 period, which can be used for a proper classification. This distinction mainly rests on claims about negative outcomes of rapid population growth on economic growth and the necessity of declaration of population growth in order to provide a stable economy. Today, we can observe the consequences of the post-1960 policies as a considerable increase in the share of elderly people and a significant decline in the share of children. This transition indicates that problems of an aging population and a decline in population will appear as unavoidable phenomena in Turkey. In this study, relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and Population Growth (N) which are accepted as the main rationale behind the changes of population policies has been analyzed using the data collected for years of 1961-2012 period in Turkey. Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) Tests, ARDL Bounds Test and Granger Causality Test have been used for this purpose. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that each of them was first-order stationary series and there was no long-run relationship between them. It was found that there was no causal relationship between two series according to the Granger Causality Test.

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