Türkiye ekonomik büyüme arzusunu gerçekleştirebilmek için küreselleşen dünyada ticari konumunu mutlaka güçlendirmelidir. Dış ticaret dünya ekonomik sistemiyle bütünleşmenin öncelikli araçlarındandır. Günümüzde her ülke ancak ihracat ve ithalat etkinliklerinde bulunarak ekonomik büyümeyi veya kalkınmayı gerçekleştirebilir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri araştırmaktır. Bunun için çalışmada 1980-2016 yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Yöntem olaraksa literatürdeki en güncel yöntemlerden olan ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır. Değişkenlere uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisini belirleyen sınır testi yapıldıktan sonra hata düzeltme modelleriyle kısa dönemli ilişkiler de gözlemlenmiştir. Bulgulara göre Türkiye’de hem ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi hem de ithalata dayalı büyüme hipotezi geçerlidir. Buna ek olarak uzun dönemde ihracatla ithalat arasında da eşbütünleşme ilişkisine rastlanılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkilerin kısa dönemde de var olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışmaya göre, Türkiye uluslararası ticari yapılanma içerisinde daha fazla yer almalı diğer bir deyişle ekonomisini daha fazla dışa açmalıdır. Dış ticareti engelleyici doğrudan ya da dolaylı tedbirlere başvurulmamalıdır. Bununla birlikte Türkiye gelişmekte olan ülkelere özel olan dış ticarette geleneksel sektörler ağırlığını bilgi ve teknoloji tabanlı sektörlere doğru kademeli olarak kaydırmalıdır.
Turkey should strengthen global commercial position in the world to realize the economic growth desire. Foreign trade is the primary means of integration with the world economic system. Today, every country can only realize economic growth or development by having activities of export and import. The aim of the work in this direction in Turkey to investigate between exports, imports and economic growth relations in the short and long-term. For this, 1980-2016 annual data was used in the study. As a method, the ARDL Boundary Testing Approach, which is one of the most recent methods in the literature, has been applied. Short-run relationships were also observed with error correction models after the boundary test was performed to determine the long-term cointegration relationship between variables. Both export-driven growth hypothesis and import-growth hypothesis is valid in Turkey, according to the findings. In addition, in the long run, there was a co-integration relationship between exports and imports. It is also the result of long-term relationships between variables in the short-run. As a result, according to this study, Turkey should be more involved in the international business system should lead to more external economies of other words. Direct or indirect measures to prevent foreign trade should not be resorted to. However, the traditional foreign trade sector in particular to developing countries, which Turkey must shift weight to information and technology-based industry gradually.
Turkey should strengthen global commercial position in the world to realize economic growth desire. Foreign trade is the primary means of integration with the world economic system. Today, every country can only realize economic growth or development by having activities of export and import. The aim of the work in this direction in Turkey to investigate between exports, imports and economic growth relations in short- and long-term. For this, 1980-2016 annual data was used in the study. As a method, the ARDL Boundary Testing Approach, which is one of the most recent methods in the literature, has been applied. Short-run relationships were also observed with error correction models after the boundary test was performed to determine the long-term cointegration relationship between variables. Both export-driven growth hypothesis and import-growth hypothesis is valid in Turkey, according to the findings. In addition, in the long run, there was a cointegration relationship between exports and imports. It is also the result of long-term relationships between variables in the short-run. As a result, according to this study, Turkey should be more involved in international business system should lead to more external economies of other words. Direct or indirect measures to prevent foreign trade should not be resorted to. However, traditional foreign trade sector in particular to developing countries, which Turkey must shift weight to information and technology-based industry gradually.
Field : Güzel Sanatlar; Hukuk; İlahiyat; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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