Abstract:

The aim of this study is to compare the behavior of the exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. On the weekly return rates of the local currencies of the relevant countries' Dollar gender values between 17.07.2005-09.02.2020 data, analysis was carried out with the Dominguez-Lobato test, developed by Dominguez and Lobato (2003) for the predictability of the return rate using the fixed length moving sliding windows method. The analysis found that the effectiveness of the BRICS-T exchange markets in a weak shape changed over time and the behavior of the BRICS-T exchange markets described that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis was more successful than the Active Markets Hypothesis. With the use of the historical price information, the return rate forecast can be achieved more successful results than other rates for the CNY/USD and INR/USD rate, while the return rate forecast for the BRL/USD and ZAR/USD rate is other important results that are achieved that the chance of success is quite low. In general, it can be said that the Brazilian and South African exchange markets are more active in a weak form than other BIRCS-T countries exchange markets.