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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) öncelikli hedefi, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin benimsenmesi ile birlikte fiyat istikrarını sağlanması ve korunması olarak belirlenmiştir. Ancak, 2008 Küresel finansal krizinden sonra TCMB’nin amaç fonksiyonu, finansal piyasalardaki dalgalanmaların ve sağlıksız fiyat oluşumlarının etkilerinin önlenmesi için finansal istikrarın sağlanmasını da içerecek şekilde yeniden düzenlenmiştir. Bu çerçevede bu makale, Türkiye’deki finansal koşullardaki değişimin merkez bankasının faiz oranı belirleme davranışına etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla, finansal koşullar endeksinin (FKE) eşik değişken olarak belirlendiği bir açık ekonomi Taylor kuralı modeli, Ocak 2006 ile Aralık 2016 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde eşik Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (eşik GMM) yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar Taylor kuralının geçerliliğinin ancak finansal genişleme döneminde olduğunu ima etmektedir.
The priority of the Republic of Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) is to ensure and preserve price stability along with the adoption of the inflation targeting regime. However, after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the target function of TCMB has been reorganized to include financial stability to prevent the effects of fluctuations in the financial markets and unhealthy price formations. In this context, this article aims to examine the impact of change in the financial conditions in Turkey on the interest rate determination behavior of the central bank. For this purpose, an open economy Taylor rule model, in which the Financial Conditions Index (FKE) is determined as a marginal variable, was predicted by the marginal Generalized Moments Method (MGM) method to cover the period from January 2006 to December 2016. The empirical findings suggest that Taylor's rule is valid only in the period of financial expansion.
The primary objective of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has been determined to achieve and maintain price stability with the adoption of inflation targeting regime. However, after the 2008 Global financial crisis the reaction function of the CBRT has been modified with the inclusion of the achievement of financial stability to prevent the impact of fluctuations and unhealthy price formations in the financial markets. In this framework this article aims to investigate the impact of change in financial conditions on the interest rate setting behaviour of the Central Bank of Turkey. To this aim, an open economy Taylor rule model where the financial conditions index (FCI) is selected as the threshold variable is estimated based on threshold Generalized Method of Moments (threshold GMM) methodology covering the period from January 2006 to December 2016. The empirical results indicate the validity of the Taylor rule only during the period of financial expansion.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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